Cutting through Irish Bluster

SITTING AN OCEAN AWAY from the late-night IMF activity in Dublin, I'm ready to make a few predictions on what will happen to Irish debt. If Wall Street Journal and New York Times journalists have the inside scoop, then a package of European aid for Irish banks worth €50 bn will be put on the table before the weekend. That amount of money won't cover all obligations so some bank bondholders will take a loss. There is another package worth nearly €100 bn that will be offered to the Minister for Finance to run the public finances. Getting that money from Europe instead of the bond markets means getting IMF oversight in the Irish budgetary process. When that happens, double dole payments at Christmas will become fond memories. I'm very interested in other things that the IMF will impose and I believe statutory redundancies will come to pass for a whole range of civil service jobs. Every EU country will be ploughing money into Ireland, seeking value for money. I think those benevolent partners would like to see structural change in the way Ireland does business but will be happy to watch sacrifice imposed across every part of society if that means Ireland will start digging itself out by reverting to a country with a low cost base for business.